There are major moves afoot as the world repositions itself away from the US-centric 'unipolar' moment and reverts to a more natural multi-dimensional, multi=polar world. The significant indicator of the US' collapsing authority occurred at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis when the Saudi authorities refused to take a telephone call from US president Joe Biden. For a US satrapy to openly snub the reigning president was unheard of in and of itself. Saudi Arabia however doubled down and publicly announced it would not participate in the anti-Russian sanctions the US was pushing. This was then followed by an even more significant announcement - Saudi Arabia would sell oil to China in yuan priced contracts. Everyone should already understand the importance of Saudi Arabia and the pricing of oil in US dollars so I won't belabour the point.
What was interesting at the time was the geopolitical effect that this open defection to the China-Russia camp would have. Saudi Arabia has been a US protectorate since 1975. For a long time this arrangement benefitted both parties. Saudi Arabia was able to expand its influence in the Muslim world under US protection, exporting radical Islam into the Soviet borderlands. The Saudi's bankrolled the mujahaddin's war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, caused unrest in the former Soviet 'stans' and sponsored Chechen terrorists in the Caucusus. It would be fair to say that the Saudi's and the Russians were firm enemies. This proxy war would continue in the Syrian conflict and in Saudi and Iranian rivalry.
In response to Russia's intervention in the Syrian war, the US pushed the Saudi's to undertake a series of actions which ultimately undermined the Kingdom's economic and politicial security. Saudi Arabia had already poured billions of dollars in weapons, money and men into the Syria project, which the Syrians and Russians had destroyed. The Saudi's then ramped up oil production in an effort to crash the oil market. In the 1980s, this move had seriously weakened the Soviet Union, hastening its collapse, but repeating the same move again would only work if the Russian's had not learned from the past. Despite the claims of US strategists, Russia is not dependent on oil exports and proved far more resilient to lower oil prices than the Saudis. For the first time in its history, Saudi Arabia faced a budget deficit.
Saudi Arabia's next moves were closely aligned to American plans for military action against Iran. Geography is king and Iran holds the strategic position controling the Straits of Hormuz. In the event of a western war against Iran, the Iranians could easily close the Straits and cut off Saudi oil exports, blowing up the oil market and setting off a chain reaction of collapse through the futures market, stock market, etc. It was therefore essential for the US to secure an alternative, secure route for Saudi oil exports. With the Syrian overland route blocked (seizing control of the oil pipelines across Syria was a key goal of the war on Syria), there was only one route left - southwest through Yemen to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia had often interfered in the affairs of their poor, southern neighbor and in 2015 militarily intervened in the Yemen civil war in support of the Saudi puppet president, Hadi. Backed by US intelligence and resources, the Saudi's expected to quickly subdue impoverished Yemen, but the Yemeni's proved to be far more resilient fighters than anticipated. This war should have been a lesson for all military strategists - a technically advanced military can be fought to a standstill by a technically inferior foe, if that foe is appropriately motivated. Unfortunately, learning things is not something US strategists do. It took the Yemeni's a long time to expose Saudi Arabia's fundamental weakness - it's oil infrastructure - but once exposed, it was only a matter of time.
The Yemeni's, using a combination of short range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, struck at vulnerable Saudi facilities - the capital Riyad, airports, oil terminals, refineries and most vulnerable of all, oil pipelines. Even small, cheap drones carrying a small explosive charge could be crashed into a pipeline and cost the Saudi's tens of thousands of dollars in lost revenue. To protect themselves, the Saudi's purchased US built Patriot anti-air, anti-missile systems, but discovered to their horror that the Patriot is ineffective. In desperation, they realised the only effective anti-missile systems belong to....Russia. If the mountain won't come to Muhammad.... On 27 March 2022, Yemeni drones penetrated again penetrated the Saudi's ineffective Patriot shield and destroyed the oil refinery and storage tanks at Jeddah.
Russia's foreign policy is often described as seeking to turn enemies into neutrals, neutrals into supporters, and supporters into allies, so Saudi Arabia's suprise announcement, indicates that Russian diplomacy must have been going on behind the scenes for an extended period. Russia talks to all sides and, unlike the US, negotiates in good faith. Russia undoubtedly used its influence on the Iranians, to influence the Yemenis, and used its influence on the Saudis to bring all the parties to acceptance of a ceasefire. The UN negotiating team, which has for years spun its wheels and failed to achieve anything, can claim success. Admitting any role for Russia would only have muddied the waters. The important thing is that the fighting has stopped and talking recommenced. Saudi Arabia may find that from this side of the table, it will be more beneficial to stop this pointless war. https://en.abna24.com/news//yemens-ansarullah-saudi-led-coalition-welcome-un-brokered-truce_1243906.html
What was interesting at the time was the geopolitical effect that this open defection to the China-Russia camp would have. Saudi Arabia has been a US protectorate since 1975. For a long time this arrangement benefitted both parties. Saudi Arabia was able to expand its influence in the Muslim world under US protection, exporting radical Islam into the Soviet borderlands. The Saudi's bankrolled the mujahaddin's war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, caused unrest in the former Soviet 'stans' and sponsored Chechen terrorists in the Caucusus. It would be fair to say that the Saudi's and the Russians were firm enemies. This proxy war would continue in the Syrian conflict and in Saudi and Iranian rivalry.
In response to Russia's intervention in the Syrian war, the US pushed the Saudi's to undertake a series of actions which ultimately undermined the Kingdom's economic and politicial security. Saudi Arabia had already poured billions of dollars in weapons, money and men into the Syria project, which the Syrians and Russians had destroyed. The Saudi's then ramped up oil production in an effort to crash the oil market. In the 1980s, this move had seriously weakened the Soviet Union, hastening its collapse, but repeating the same move again would only work if the Russian's had not learned from the past. Despite the claims of US strategists, Russia is not dependent on oil exports and proved far more resilient to lower oil prices than the Saudis. For the first time in its history, Saudi Arabia faced a budget deficit.
Saudi Arabia's next moves were closely aligned to American plans for military action against Iran. Geography is king and Iran holds the strategic position controling the Straits of Hormuz. In the event of a western war against Iran, the Iranians could easily close the Straits and cut off Saudi oil exports, blowing up the oil market and setting off a chain reaction of collapse through the futures market, stock market, etc. It was therefore essential for the US to secure an alternative, secure route for Saudi oil exports. With the Syrian overland route blocked (seizing control of the oil pipelines across Syria was a key goal of the war on Syria), there was only one route left - southwest through Yemen to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia had often interfered in the affairs of their poor, southern neighbor and in 2015 militarily intervened in the Yemen civil war in support of the Saudi puppet president, Hadi. Backed by US intelligence and resources, the Saudi's expected to quickly subdue impoverished Yemen, but the Yemeni's proved to be far more resilient fighters than anticipated. This war should have been a lesson for all military strategists - a technically advanced military can be fought to a standstill by a technically inferior foe, if that foe is appropriately motivated. Unfortunately, learning things is not something US strategists do. It took the Yemeni's a long time to expose Saudi Arabia's fundamental weakness - it's oil infrastructure - but once exposed, it was only a matter of time.
The Yemeni's, using a combination of short range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, struck at vulnerable Saudi facilities - the capital Riyad, airports, oil terminals, refineries and most vulnerable of all, oil pipelines. Even small, cheap drones carrying a small explosive charge could be crashed into a pipeline and cost the Saudi's tens of thousands of dollars in lost revenue. To protect themselves, the Saudi's purchased US built Patriot anti-air, anti-missile systems, but discovered to their horror that the Patriot is ineffective. In desperation, they realised the only effective anti-missile systems belong to....Russia. If the mountain won't come to Muhammad.... On 27 March 2022, Yemeni drones penetrated again penetrated the Saudi's ineffective Patriot shield and destroyed the oil refinery and storage tanks at Jeddah.
Russia's foreign policy is often described as seeking to turn enemies into neutrals, neutrals into supporters, and supporters into allies, so Saudi Arabia's suprise announcement, indicates that Russian diplomacy must have been going on behind the scenes for an extended period. Russia talks to all sides and, unlike the US, negotiates in good faith. Russia undoubtedly used its influence on the Iranians, to influence the Yemenis, and used its influence on the Saudis to bring all the parties to acceptance of a ceasefire. The UN negotiating team, which has for years spun its wheels and failed to achieve anything, can claim success. Admitting any role for Russia would only have muddied the waters. The important thing is that the fighting has stopped and talking recommenced. Saudi Arabia may find that from this side of the table, it will be more beneficial to stop this pointless war. https://en.abna24.com/news//yemens-ansarullah-saudi-led-coalition-welcome-un-brokered-truce_1243906.html
Can the Saudi’s be trusted? With their long time connections to US and Israeli interests? I would like to think the war is over but I would not trust any of the groups except the Houthi’s.
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