From the outset of the Ukrainian civil war, the Banderists in Kiev have conducted all negotiations in bad faith. In the very beginning, before open violence, when the protesters in the east were only seeking assurance that they would be left alone and permitted to speak their native Russian, the Kievan authorities refused to negotiate and immediately resorted to violent thuggery. From there everything escalated. In July 2014, after the conflict appeared to be spiraling out of control, the Kiev regime's European sponsors forced them to the negotiate a ceasefire with the separatists. This was the Minsk Protocol, which turned out not to be worth the paper it was written on. This was followed in September 2015 by the more Minsk Accords, a formal de-confliction treaty endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. Reading the "history" of the Ukrainian conflict in Wikipedia you would not realize that Ukraine only ever signed the Minsk Accords because their entire army was trapped in the Debaltsov pocket and facing utter annihilation by the combined forces of Lugansk and Donetsk. It was a treaty Ukraine signed under duress and they never had any intention of fulfilling its terms. Even as late as December 2021, Ukrainian president Zelensky openly stated that Ukraine wanted to renegotiate Minsk's terms to something more palatable.
After the disaster of Day One and Zelensky realized the west was not coming to save him, he reached out to Russia to negotiate a ceasefire. Unlike the Americans, the Russians are quite happy to negotiate during a conflict. They had no desire to continue fighting with a 'brother nation' if it could at all be helped. The Russians paused their advance, yet, despite agreeing to a time, date and location (Gomel in Belarus) for negotiations, the Ukrainian team did not show. They would keep the Russian side waiting two days and only attended after the Russian team had begun the return to Moscow. The resulting negotiation was a debacle with the Ukrainian side demanding that negotiations could only commence when the Russians had withdrawn from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. This of course went nowhere and the delegations parted with vague assurances that further talks would be organised. Upon the return of the Ukrainian team to Kiev, one of the negotiators, former finance minister, Kiveez, was seized by SBU operatives accused of treason, tortured, shot and his body dumped in the street. This was clearly a warning to the others.
All of this commotion did not change the facts on the ground and the Ukrainian position has steadily worsened day by day. The Ukrainian army is no longer a coherent force. Their main forces are trapped within pockets which will be forced to surrender or ground into dust. Key cities are surrounded and the units inside them are under siege.
Time is not on Ukraine's side but they are scrambling to run out the clock in the delusional hope that the west will be able to pull out a Hail Mary. Ongoing negotiations with Kiev have been focused on pausing the advance to manage the humanitarian crisis and evacuate civilians, but here the Ukrainians are behaving in the same way as ISIS in Syria. No sooner are terms agreed and the military situation eases in response to the ceasefires, than the Ukrainians renege on the terms or seek to renegotiate, all the while the military forces use the pause to reinforce and resupply. This strategy is familiar to the Russians, having dealt with the same sponsors in Syria. There is failed and it is failing in Ukraine too. Ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement of the Ukrainian question and negotiations require good faith. What do you have to offer if you've pissed away every ounce of credibility on a cheater's deal. Bismark understood this when he said:
"Do not expect that once [having] taken advantage of Russia's weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russia has always come for their money. And when they come - do not rely on an agreement signed by you [during their weakness], you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written [on]. Therefore, with the Russian's [it] is to play fair, or do not play."Having demonstrated the futility of substantive negotiations with Ukrainian underlings, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba met for talks in Ankara, Turkey. These too proved fruitless. As a country without sovereignty, Ukraine cannot negotiate on its own behalf. Russia knows that it is really negotiating with the US. This has been the case since the coup in 2014. The US regime however pretends it has no role, except as a concerned ally. That is fine as far as Russia is concerned, its stance has hardened since the beginning of the operation. If diplomats will not talk on substantive matters, the guns will. Ukraine's bargaining position is crumbling every day. Soon there will be nothing to talk about.
Really, the Ukraine is an irrelevance. The US and NATO were only ever using the country as a springboard to undermine and attack Russia. The Ukrainian's are expendable. The outcome of the war however, is not irrelevent. As the US' Russia plan was so poorly concieved, every day it goes on, the worse the outcome for the US. US credibility - shaky at the best of times - has been destroyed. The Russians have known this for years, declaring openly that the US is 'not agreement capable.' Everyone on the international stage can see this and the effects are being felt. The head's of state of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both refused to take telephone calls from US puppet president, Joe Biden. This is unprecedented as both countries are US satrapies. In desperation the Biden regime has reached out to two of its declared enemies - Venuzeula and Iran - in an attempt to meet the US' urgent need for heavy oil. Both nations have had their foreign reserves and assets seized by the US. Both nations are under sanction by the US through legislation that can only be removed by Congress, so whatever promises Biden and his team of imbeciles makes are worthless. Before any oil could ever flow, both countries would require the US to normalize relations, something that would take a very long time - time that the US does not have.
Both Venuzuela and Iran are allies of Russia, so where would they likely stand? With their long-supportive ally, or with the 'not agreement capable US?' Lavrov has already met with the Venuzuelans. Iran has made its position clear by announcing it will not discuss the any agreement with the US.
As the US and Europe begin to realize their gamble has failed, there is a level of panic rising in the western capitals. Europe has now begun to step back from sanctions on Russian banks and oil exports. The French Renault company, has announced they will not withdraw from the Russian market, unlike their German competitors, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and BMW. Renault is a popular seller in Russia and aims to seize market share from the Germans. The Russian automobile market is simply too big to ignore.
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