Military developments are less interesting than the political and economic situation, so we'll whip through the highlights first.
Despite negotiating the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol, Kharkov, Sumy and other blockaded cities, all humanitarian corridors were shut down by the action of neo-nazi militias. Militias have fired on evacuating civilians - which the west reports as Russian attrocities. In Mariupol and Kharkov the militias have openly warned that any civilians attempting to 'defect' will be shot. City authorities have warned that negotiations with the Russians would be dealt with as treason. One member of the original Ukrainian ceasefire delegation, Denis Kireev, was seized by Ukrainian SBU upon his return from Gostomel and executed and his body dumped in the street in Kiev, as a warning. Kireev was declared to be a Russian spy and traitor but after his murder began creating waves politically internationally, he was proclaimed to be a Ukrainian hero who had been killed fighting the Russians. The mayor of Gostomel, a township on the outskirts of Kiev (where Russian paratroopers seized the airport on Day One), Yuriy Prilipko was arrested and shot for facilitating the evacuation of civilians through the humanitarian corridor. The perpetrators of these and other war crimes will be tracked down and dealt with. Remember the Russian warning, "Where are the Chechen terrorist leaders today?"
In Mariupol, an Azov detachment was vaporized in a Toscha-U ballistic missile strike. This was a message from the Donestk Armed Forces. Russian, Chechen and DPR special forces are beginning to work their way into the city.
Russian troops have now reached the important cross-roads city of Izyum, south of Kharkov. Ukrainian forces are fighting hard to hold onto the city, but it's only a matter of time. Holding Izyum will block the evacuation of Ukrainian forces currently pinned against the front-line in Donbas. Despite all the fighting going on to their rear, Ukrainian forces - dominated as always by nationalist militias - have continued to hold their position and are engaged in shelling the cities of the Donbas. Now, with the Russians straddling their line of retreat towards Kiev, they are beginning to realize the desperation of their position. With complete Russian fire control over the battlefield, the Ukrainians have two choices - a. surrender, or b. die. Expect Russian MLRS systems will begin working over the battlefield very shortly.
A Russian tank tows away a Ukrainian tank captured at a Ukrainian tank park. These tanks will be refurbished and put in LDPR service.
Politics and Economics
A look at the countries that are sanctioning Russia tells you all you need to know. This IS the end of the uni-polar moment. The world is splitting into two blocks. One block is dominated by a real, physical economy and the other is black hole of financial speculators.
If the west's plan was to collapse their own economies (and there are those who think this is the ultimate plan), then the instigators of this debacle could not have done a better job.
Oil prices are skyrocketing. Brent crude was US$130 a barrel (historical record $147) and continuing on the upward trend. At the pump in the US petrol is now breaking US7 a gallon. In Germany its E2.30 and rising. Significant price rises at the pump result in immediate increases in all consumer products as trucking and transport costs spike. The result is inflation, which given the fragility of all western economies, central bankers have few if any remedies. Interest rate rises? Neither western companies or governments can tolerate rising interest rates.
Natural Gas spot prices reached a record E345 per megawatt hour yesterday. Market intervention pulled the prices down E277, but the writing is on the wall. Without Russian gas in the market, reserves will be depleted in days and prices will skyrocket. The mainstream media continue to pitch the message that the price rises are due to Russian 'threats' to the gas supply rather than pointing out this is the natural reaction to the west's declared hostility towards Russia and cutting it out of the financial market.
Prices are also rising for wheat, corn, aluminum, fertilizers, etc. etc.
Record nickel prices. There goes the 2030 net zero targets!.
After falling demand over 2021, steel prices swing up.
There is relentless upward pressure on gold - US$1988 dollars per ounce last night - which requires more and more market intervention by the 'financial powers that be' to artificially deflate the price. Russia's massive physical gold reserve is a problem for the US as it is outside US control. In an attempt to attack Russia's gold reserve, the US has kicked Russia out of the London Bullion Market Association and a bill has been introduced to sanction anyone buying or selling Russian gold. This is obviously targeted towards India, China and other Asian buyers and represents a significant escalation of the sanctions regime (and a sign of desperation to bring Russia to heel quickly). This ultimately will not work as cutting Russia, a major gold miner and holder, from the gold market will only increase the price further.
The combination of spiking gas and resource prices is having its impact on European industries, with many major manufacturers informing their respective governments that they will need to shut down operations, with all the attendant economic damage that entails. The French and German regimes are squirming desperately, but are unable to shake their subordination to US interests. Within Germany, the industry lobbies are powerful and a break with the political class will not be long in coming if these self-destructive policies continue.
More own goals can be observed by the termination of Boeing and Airbus leased airliners to the Russian carrier, Aeroflot. These aircraft are now largely trapped within Russia for threat of seizure if they entered western airspace - from which they are currently banned. Sanctioning of financial links with Russia mean that neither Boeing or Airbus can bill the Russians for the aircraft, so.... Effectively, Aeroflot has free use of these aircraft within Russia and Boeing and Airbus are carrying the cost.
Much is made of the seizure of Russian central bank assets and accounts in western jurisdictions, but little attention has been paid to western capital now trapped in Russia. This is a very rough and unscientific estimate (US dollars).
$1,180 billion in direct foreign investment.
$679 billion in foreign business operations, e.g., McDonalds, IKEA, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and many more.
$392 billion in all kinds of debt: bonds, loans, trade advances.
$71 billion in cash, deposits, insurance and pension programs.
$25 billion in IMF special drawing rights.
$13 billion in other investments.
Two can play the sanction and seizure game and for some foreign businesses, the loss of their Russian operations will be catastrophic given that Russia is a rising market and Europe is a declining market. For several years German auto concerns BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz have been dependent on their Russian operations to maintain their profitability and market share. Huge manufacturing plants have been established in Russia to capitalize on the lower energy and raw material costs. How will they compete in the New Europe?
With the US dollar haemorrhaging value from every orifice we can expect there to be a crackdown on crypto currencies under the guise of 'Russia sanctions.'
Beware! Beware! Beware of elite psychopaths warning that others are planning to implement a catastrophic cyber-attack. Funny that these people only undertook a cyber-attack exercise in December 2021. A massive outage of power and internet would leave the people of Europe flailing around and open the door to martial law, suspension of civil rights, asset seizure (or straight up appropriation).
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