The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Eight - Unexpected Impacts

Because the west's anti-Russian policies are not reality-based western policy makers seem confounded that Russia is not folding under the pressure of sanctions. Russian strategic planning is deep and all western actions will have been considered and planned for. In addition, the cumulative effects of western sanctions are beginning to rebound on their authors.

NASA is no longer a cutting edge technological concern. For years now it has relied on the import of high precision chip and circuit technologies from China and rocket engines from Russia. The US is so dependent on Russian rocket engines that these technologies have always been exempted from sanctions. Having exposed their dependency, the Russian response was obvious. Russia first announced that would no longer be cooperating with either NASA or the European Space Agencies. Both organizations rely on Russia to supply and man the International Space Station. This was followed yesterday by the announcement that Russia would no longer sell rocket engines to the US and Europe. How will NASA and the ESA bring their astronauts home? On a broomstick?

Russia and Belorussia are the world's largest aluminum exporters. Due to the sanctions, aluminum prices have jumped on the London Futures Exchange to $1440 per ton. Aluminum is a critical resource in modern industry and construction. Inflation.

The US claims to be a net oil exporter, but this is not strictly correct. The US requires heavy oil from Venezuela and Russia which is mixed with Canadian and US crude in the refining process to manufacture the variety of petroleum products it consumes and exports, such as diesel. Venezuelan oil imports were embargoed after the failed US coup there several years ago so the US turned to Russia to make up the shortfall. 25% of US oil imports come from Russia. Russia has announced it will no longer supply the US with oil. With Europe now openly hostile, it's only a matter of time before Russia cuts off their oil and gas supply. Then....inflation.

Another significant Russia and Belorussia export to Europe is phosphates and fertilizer (these are outputs of the Russian petrochemical industry). European agriculture is wholly depending on industrial fertilizer so...what happens when that resource is cut off? Food crisis....inflation.

On Day One of the Russian operation, gold and silver prices leapt upwards as investors sought safety and security (in Australia the gold price jumped more than A$100 in an afternoon. Both gold and silver prices are subject to active market suppression and prices returned to the status quo ante on Monday 28th February 2022. Suppression involves the massive purchase of gold futures to flood the market and thereby lower the price. This strategy only pumps up futures liabilities which will need to be repaid at some time in the future. With Russia sanctioned and cut out of SWIFT, we can expect Russia, which holds substantial physical gold reserves, will seek payment for exports in physical gold. The US has virtually no gold reserves so... the pressure on physical gold prices can be expected to rise. If physical gold prices rise, when the gold futures come due, the higher spot price will apply and....inflation.

As I mentioned several days ago, the Russian Central Bank's decision to increase lending rates from 9% to 20% was a critically important move. Russia is prepared to weather the inevitable inflation this crisis will cause (inflation in Russia is running at 8% before the crisis). In the west, where near zero official interest rates have been maintained for nearly a decade, there is NO capacity to weather the inflationary storm. An increase of only 2 or 3% will send many national economies to the wall. Just when the governments of Europe will recognize this is unclear. In the US, there is no recognition, only delusion.


Censorship Ramps up on both sides

Official Russian government websites and media are now largely blocked in the west. The narrative must not be questioned!

Despite constant western claims of censorship in Russian, the Russian government has been very slow to react to the agitation of fifth columnists. There have long been public complaints in Russia about the anti-Russian / pro-Maidan views of Echo of Moscow and the Dozhd TV Channel, but Moscow normally ignores such marginal views. Now however, with these channels called for the violent overthrow of the Russian government, it was time to act. Both channels have been shut down and prosecution initiated against their owners.

"In connection with the purposeful and systematic posting on the Ekho Moskvy and Dozhd TV websites of information calling for extremist activity, violence, as well as deliberately false information regarding the actions of Russian military personnel as part of a special operation to protect the DPR and LPR, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation in the manner prescribed by paragraph 1 of Article 15.3. Federal Law No. 149-FZ of July 27, 2006 “On Information, Information Technologies and Information Protection” introduced requirements to the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technologies and Mass Media to take measures to restrict access to these information resources.

Taking into account that the information posted by the Ekho Moskvy radio station and the Dozhd TV channel contains calls for extremism, violence against citizens of the Russian Federation, mass violations of public order and public safety, as well as for the participation of citizens of the Russian Federation in mass public events in violation of the requirements of the current legislation and the forcible overthrow of the constitutional order, the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation sent representations to the Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Network, Roskomnadzor and Gazprom-Media on the immediate elimination of violations of the law, as well as the causes and conditions that contributed to them, up to and including immediate shutdown."

Following on from western censorship, Russia has subsequently shut down or blocked the following:
1. Meduza
2. BBC
3. Deutsche Welle
4. Radio Liberty
5. Facebook*
6. Instagram*
7. Twitter*
* These are blocked without a VPN

The following western broadcasters have advised they will cease operations in Russia (no loss I guess).
1. CNN
2. CBS News
3. Bloomberg
4. ABC News
5. BBC
6. CBC
7. Netflix

In the face of widespread fakery, the State Duma adopted a new law on criminal punishment for creating and spreading fake stories about the actions of the Russian armed forces. Punishments range from significant fines through to 10 years in prison, depending on the context. I have observed that pro-Russian Telegram accounts reporting from the front-line have increased self-censorship and moderation to avoid misreporting. With so many videos and photos posted from across Ukraine, it's difficult to verify truth from fake.

Quick Update - 8 March 2022
European gas prices are going through the roof. 1000 cubic metres of natural gas is now US$3900. Petrol prices in the US are now hitting US$7 per gallon. Aluminium prices are hitting $4000 per ton, a four fold increase in a matter of days.