Sunday, 6 March 2022

The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Nine


Two days ago western and Ukrainian media claimed the Russians had bombed the nuclear power plant at Zaporozhye. The Zaporozhye nuclear plant is the largest in Europe and Zelensky proclaimed that the disaster would be bigger than Chernobyl. Like the earlier claim about the Chernobyl plant, it was only a matter of time before the propaganda lies would be exposed. Ukraine's four nuclear plants are high priority targets for Russia in order to prevent the theft of plutonium for weapons or any other 'accidents.' Russian forces were quick to arrive on site and negotiate with plant management for the protection of the facility. Sometime after agreement was reached, someone started a fire in the administrative building. The fire was quickly put out but film of the smoke had already been uploaded and the propaganda train had left the station. There never was any risk to the nuclear plant and no radiation leak. Joint Russian and Ukrainian patrols are ensuring security here and at all Ukrainian nuclear plants.

None of the humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from active war-zones negotiated between the Russian and Ukrainian sides have been opened. In all instances, militias have intervened to prevent civilians from evacuating. Due to the unwillingness or inability of the Ukrainian's to reign in or control the militias, the Russian side has resumed offensive actions, with something of a vengence.

Negotiations between the sides will reconvene on 7th March.

In Kharkov, Russian Aerospace forces struck the camp of the 5th Slobozhanskaya Brigade of the National Guard, completely destroying both the troops quartered there, their equipment and their headquarter's building.

A convoy of troops and equipment of the 26th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian navy was annihilated near the village of Kalchinovka, on the road towards Mariupol. Heavy loss of life and equipment.

'Hero President' Volodymr Zelensky is reportedly now in Poland, broadcasting as if from the front from the US embassy in Warsaw. Photos of his 'frontline visits' during the first days of the war have been revealed to have been taken at a photo op in Eastern Ukraine the previous year. Zelensky is an actor and has really only been 'playing' president - not much different from many leaders in the west. It's incredible to think that the idiots running this show would not be able to reveal this by simply doing an image search. This is what the world becomes when its run by marketing executives.

As reported yesterday, several major western media organisations have announced they will be closing their Russian operations. The list includes BBC, CNN, CBS News, Bloomberg, ABC, CBC, Radio Liberty and Deutsche Weld among many others. Despite their various press releases claiming noble motives, the truth is that they are only leaving as a result Russia's recently enacted law that would see promoters and creators of fake news about Russia face prosecution. For propaganda reasons all these companies would prefer to stay in Russia but as they are active purveyors of fake news, they cannot 'face the music' and so must high-tail it out of there. So what does that tell you about the quality of their news at home?

In the digital age it's easy to fake news, but just as easy to debunk.

The 3M-54 Kalibr is a versatile family of Russian cruise missile. It was originally designed as maritime weapon, capable of being launched by submarines from a torpedo tube, from ships via a missile launch tube or system. It was adapted for ground launch systems and even dropped from aircraft. Unlike the subsonic American Tomahawk cruise missile, the Kalibr is capable of speeds up to 3 times the speed of sound. It is a devastatingly accurate and deadly weapons system. While the operation to date has focused largely Ukraine east of the Dniepr, Russia demonstrated the power of its weapons systems (as if that was really necessary) with a strike on the military airfield at Vinnistra in central west Ukraine. The airfield had largely escaped Russian attention and was being used by the west to shuttle weapons and supplies into the country. Eight Kalibrs was fired into the airfield, completely annihilating its air traffic control tower and destroying the runaway and parked aircraft. Zelensky was frantic when advised. This was more than a warning to Ukraine, but to Ukraine's sponsors. If you think you can ship in weapons to extend the war, you are much mistaken.






The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Eight - Civilian Evacuations


Sergei Lavrov did not hold much hope that the second round of negotiations with Ukraine would yield much fruit. He was not far wrong. The Ukrainian delegation once again was a no-show at the agreed time and then sought to reschedule the negotiations to the following morning. Ukraine's US sponsors probably believe these 'mind games' disconcert their Russian opponents. It only shows them up as idiots.

On substantive matters, little was achieved, but the Russians did manage to achieve agreement on the opening of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from Maripol and Volnovakha. This was a strategy used by Russian negotiators in Syria to facilitate the de-escalation of hostilities. It interesting to see this approach being used in Ukraine.

In Mariupol, the corridor will commence from 11:00 (Kyiv time). Civilians will be evacuated along the route Mariupol - Nikolskoye - Rozovka - Pologi - Orekhov - Zaporozhye. The evacuation was agreed to take place from three locations by municipal buses:
- SK "Ilyichevets" (pr. Nakhimov, 53)
- Drama theater (Teatralnaya square, 1)
- Kalmiusskaya district administration - (pr. Metallurgov, 193)
Personal vehicles will be permitted to follow the buses, but would not be permitted to deviate from the approved route. Arrangements for Volnovakha were still being organized.

As a consequence of the arrangement, DPR and Russian troops were ordered to cease operations near Mariupol.

However, the ceasefire in Mariupol proved to be shortlived. Instructions to the Azov Brigade to allow the evacuation of civilians were ignored and Azov militia fired on people gathering at the collection points. Official Ukraine army units then engaged the Azov militia and there has been ongoing firefights between these sides. This is backed up by a leaked report from the Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine, Alexei Danilov, that the militias are out of control and do not follow the orders of the government. "There is a sharp conflict between "Azov" battalions and the Ukrainian Armed Forces." The full, brief report is worth quoting in full:

From: Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine
To: Minister of Community and Territorial Development Chernyshev A.M.

Dear Alexei Mikhailovich!

I wish to inform you, that based on the situation on March 4, 2022, more than 40% of the territory of Ukraine is occupied and controlled by divisions of the Armed Forces of Russia.

Civilian population is continuing to hastily flee the country (based on the situation on March 4, 2022, more than 180 thousand persons).

More than 75% of the military potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been destroyed.

There is a sharp conflict between "Azov" battalions and the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The nationalist battalion no longer obeys orders.

We do not expect any real military help for Ukraine from the side of NATO.

In consideration of the above, I ask you to attend a closed extraordinary meeting...

Signed
Alexei Danilov
Around the Country.

1. Kyiv. Fighting in Bucha and in the Gostomel area (where the Russian paratroopers seized the military airport on Day One). Fighting is going on west of Kyiv while pressure is gradually increased from the east as Russian forces block the retreat of Ukrainian forces in the pocket west of the LNDR. Chernihiv is blockaded. Fighting continues in the north of the city. Negotiations are underway on the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians or bring in supplies.

2. Kharkov is practically blocked by Russian forces. MLRS of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively working from within the city and are striking residential areas under Russian control. Russian forces continue their methodical hunt for concentrations of infantry and equipment that the enemy hides in the city.

3. Nikolaev. There is fighting within the city and to its south. It appears the Kulbakino airfield is fiercely contended, with it exchanging hands several times. The flagship of the Ukrainian Navy "Hetman Sahaydachny" was scuttled its harbour by its crew on Day One of the operation to prevent it falling into Russian hands (or its use by Ukraine?).

5. Energodar and ZNPP. Russian control has been finally established. Fighting continues at Vasilievka. The Pologi are occupied, which opens up the possibility of a strike on Gulyaipole.

6. Around the cauldron there is serious fighting as Russian troops approach Slavyansk and the Izyum-Slavyansk highway. Krasny Liman and Yampol are not far away. Fighting near the city of Severodonetsk, but not yet in the city itself. The prospects for the formation of the Severodonetsk pocket are growing. Most of the territory of the LPR has already been liberated. It remains to seal up the pocket around the last large grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the LPR.

8. Donetsk-Gorlovka. They continued to receive heavy Ukrainian shelling. Destruction and casualties.

9. Volnovakha. The cleanup, according to Pushilin, will take several days. The enemy suffered heavy losses in men and equipment in the Volnovakha area.

10. Transnistria. The Armed Forces of Ukraine blew up a bridge on the border with the republic in order to impede the hypothetical invasion by Russian peacekeeping troops in any effort to pressure Odessa from the west. There is still no landing of Russian forces in Odessa after a week of reports, but the Russian navy has appeared off the coast from time to time.

Putin confirmed again today that the operation will continue until the Russian Federation achieves all its goals. There will be no concessions.



Saturday, 5 March 2022

"White Tiger" - Hitler's Monologue


The 2012 Russian movie, "White Tiger", in my opinion is one of the best and most enigmatic war movies of all time. In some respects it resembles "Apocalypse Now" as a mystical, surreal film that operates on many levels. The story is set in World War Two on the Eastern Front, it covers Russia's drive on Berlin in 1945. Briefly, a salvage crew clearing the wreckage after a battle finds a badly burnt tank driver still at the controls of his destroyed T-34 tank. The driver's injuries are so bad that he is left among the dead to die, but he does not. Against all expectations he survives and his burns completely heal, but he has no memory of his past life. Once recovered he asks to return to the front as a tank driver. His crewmates find him strange and uncommunicative, but he is lucky and has a 'feel' for combat. He later admits to his commanding officer that he can talk to the tanks, he knows their stories, and this allows him to fight them. His commanding officer thinks he has lost his mind, but his success in battle results in him being given the job of hunting down the "White Tiger", a white-painted German Tiger I tank that appears in the midst of battles and seems impervious to Russian fire. The Tanker and his crew play cat and mouse with Tiger in a series of ambush battles. In their final battle, both the Russia and German tanks are damaged and disabled. The Tiger limps from the battlefield and disappears.

In an elaborate set piece, the German surrender in Berlin is reenacted, witnessed by the Tanker's commanding officer. While Russian soldiers celebrate in the streets, the officer tracks down the Tanker, who is servicing his tank. The officer tells him that the war is over, but the Tanker merely looks away to the woods in the distance and says "No. He is still out there. He will lick his wounds and when the time is right, he will be back." When that time comes, the Tanker will be waiting for him. He climbs into his tank. The officer turns his back for a moment and when turns around, the tank is gone, a trail of diesel exhaust on the horizon.

This seems like the end, but it reverts to its most extraordinary scene. At the end of the war, in a sumptious room, Adolf Hitler sits beside a fireplace talking to a person who's face is always in shadow. Hitler admits the war is lost and he and the German people will be blamed for everything that has happened. Books will be written, ridiculous documents will be discovered, memoirs will be dreamt up. He will be blamed. But Germany was only doing what all of Europe wanted them to do. That is the nature of war. It's an extraordinary speech that the Russian author, Ilya Boyashov, has placed in the mouth of histories arch villian.

Many western critics were baffled by the film and its strange mysticism. It really isn't that difficult to understand. Prophetic maybe. The Tiger is back. The Tanker is back. The faceless man listening to Hitler's confession is back. He never went away.

Ladies and Gentlemen, for your viewing pleasure may I present "White Tiger"

"God rides in a Golden Tank"


Friday, 4 March 2022

The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Eight - Unexpected Impacts


Because the west's anti-Russian policies are not reality-based western policy makers seem confounded that Russia is not folding under the pressure of sanctions. Russian strategic planning is deep and all western actions will have been considered and planned for. In addition, the cumulative effects of western sanctions are beginning to rebound on their authors.

NASA is no longer a cutting edge technological concern. For years now it has relied on the import of high precision chip and circuit technologies from China and rocket engines from Russia. The US is so dependent on Russian rocket engines that these technologies have always been exempted from sanctions. Having exposed their dependency, the Russian response was obvious. Russia first announced that would no longer be cooperating with either NASA or the European Space Agencies. Both organizations rely on Russia to supply and man the International Space Station. This was followed yesterday by the announcement that Russia would no longer sell rocket engines to the US and Europe. How will NASA and the ESA bring their astronauts home? On a broomstick?

Russia and Belorussia are the world's largest aluminum exporters. Due to the sanctions, aluminum prices have jumped on the London Futures Exchange to $1440 per ton. Aluminum is a critical resource in modern industry and construction. Inflation.

The US claims to be a net oil exporter, but this is not strictly correct. The US requires heavy oil from Venezuela and Russia which is mixed with Canadian and US crude in the refining process to manufacture the variety of petroleum products it consumes and exports, such as diesel. Venezuelan oil imports were embargoed after the failed US coup there several years ago so the US turned to Russia to make up the shortfall. 25% of US oil imports come from Russia. Russia has announced it will no longer supply the US with oil. With Europe now openly hostile, it's only a matter of time before Russia cuts off their oil and gas supply. Then....inflation.

Another significant Russia and Belorussia export to Europe is phosphates and fertilizer (these are outputs of the Russian petrochemical industry). European agriculture is wholly depending on industrial fertilizer so...what happens when that resource is cut off? Food crisis....inflation.

On Day One of the Russian operation, gold and silver prices leapt upwards as investors sought safety and security (in Australia the gold price jumped more than A$100 in an afternoon. Both gold and silver prices are subject to active market suppression and prices returned to the status quo ante on Monday 28th February 2022. Suppression involves the massive purchase of gold futures to flood the market and thereby lower the price. This strategy only pumps up futures liabilities which will need to be repaid at some time in the future. With Russia sanctioned and cut out of SWIFT, we can expect Russia, which holds substantial physical gold reserves, will seek payment for exports in physical gold. The US has virtually no gold reserves so... the pressure on physical gold prices can be expected to rise. If physical gold prices rise, when the gold futures come due, the higher spot price will apply and....inflation.

As I mentioned several days ago, the Russian Central Bank's decision to increase lending rates from 9% to 20% was a critically important move. Russia is prepared to weather the inevitable inflation this crisis will cause (inflation in Russia is running at 8% before the crisis). In the west, where near zero official interest rates have been maintained for nearly a decade, there is NO capacity to weather the inflationary storm. An increase of only 2 or 3% will send many national economies to the wall. Just when the governments of Europe will recognize this is unclear. In the US, there is no recognition, only delusion.


Censorship Ramps up on both sides

Official Russian government websites and media are now largely blocked in the west. The narrative must not be questioned!

Despite constant western claims of censorship in Russian, the Russian government has been very slow to react to the agitation of fifth columnists. There have long been public complaints in Russia about the anti-Russian / pro-Maidan views of Echo of Moscow and the Dozhd TV Channel, but Moscow normally ignores such marginal views. Now however, with these channels called for the violent overthrow of the Russian government, it was time to act. Both channels have been shut down and prosecution initiated against their owners.
"In connection with the purposeful and systematic posting on the Ekho Moskvy and Dozhd TV websites of information calling for extremist activity, violence, as well as deliberately false information regarding the actions of Russian military personnel as part of a special operation to protect the DPR and LPR, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation in the manner prescribed by paragraph 1 of Article 15.3. Federal Law No. 149-FZ of July 27, 2006 “On Information, Information Technologies and Information Protection” introduced requirements to the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technologies and Mass Media to take measures to restrict access to these information resources.

Taking into account that the information posted by the Ekho Moskvy radio station and the Dozhd TV channel contains calls for extremism, violence against citizens of the Russian Federation, mass violations of public order and public safety, as well as for the participation of citizens of the Russian Federation in mass public events in violation of the requirements of the current legislation and the forcible overthrow of the constitutional order, the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation sent representations to the Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Network, Roskomnadzor and Gazprom-Media on the immediate elimination of violations of the law, as well as the causes and conditions that contributed to them, up to and including immediate shutdown."
Following on from western censorship, Russia has subsequently shut down or blocked the following:
1. Meduza
2. BBC
3. Deutsche Welle
4. Radio Liberty
5. Facebook*
6. Instagram*
7. Twitter*
* These are blocked without a VPN

The following western broadcasters have advised they will cease operations in Russia (no loss I guess).
1. CNN
2. CBS News
3. Bloomberg
4. ABC News
5. BBC
6. CBC
7. Netflix

In the face of widespread fakery, the State Duma adopted a new law on criminal punishment for creating and spreading fake stories about the actions of the Russian armed forces. Punishments range from significant fines through to 10 years in prison, depending on the context. I have observed that pro-Russian Telegram accounts reporting from the front-line have increased self-censorship and moderation to avoid misreporting. With so many videos and photos posted from across Ukraine, it's difficult to verify truth from fake.

Quick Update - 8 March 2022
European gas prices are going through the roof. 1000 cubic metres of natural gas is now US$3900. Petrol prices in the US are now hitting US$7 per gallon. Aluminium prices are hitting $4000 per ton, a four fold increase in a matter of days.


Thursday, 3 March 2022

The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Seven


The thing about propaganda is it always comes unstuck. Lies are ultimately unsustainable as the truth will always out. Several days ago the Warsaw Independent claimed the Verkhovna Rada (parliament of Ukraine) that several European nations would be supplying 70 new fighter jets to Ukraine, after Ukraine's airforce was wiped out on the ground on Day One. Poland would supply 28 Mig-29s, Bulgaria 16, Slovakia 12, and Bulgaria another 14 Su-25s. Every one of those countries has subsequently publicly disavowed this claim.

On Day One, Ukraine accused Belorussia of participating in the invasion. Belorussian President, Alexander Lukashenko, denied that any troops, Russian or Belorussian had entered Ukraine from Belorussian territory. Britain and the EU have sanctioned Belorussia anyway. Nevertheless, Lukashenko facilitated ceasefire negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides over the weekend, with the Belorussian border city of Gromel providing neutral ground for the meeting. Ukraine subsequently withdrew its claim that Belorussia had invaded, but stated it reserved the right to preemptively attack Belorussia. Belorussia and Russia have always been closely aligned and negotiations for the reestablishment of a union-state have been ongoing for years. Military threats from Ukraine and NATO countries will only accelerate that process. Lukashenko has requested Russia move S400 and S500 air and missile defense systems into western Belorussia to protect against NATO attack. Lukashenko has announced a referendum is planned to allow Russia to base nuclear weapons on Belorussian soil. https://de.rt.com/europa/132766-weissrussland-verfassungsreferendum-und-lukaschenkos-warnungen/ Once again the western powers have scored another own goal. Their refusal to seriously consider Russia's real security concerns have only destabilized the security of everyone. As the Russians pointed out in their draft treaty proposals - the only security is collective security.

Western MSM propaganda continues to report the Russian advance in Ukraine as stalled in the face of Ukrainian resistance. These stories simply fail to comprehend the Russian strategy of methodically cutting off the cities and isolating military units in the field where they can be defeated in detail. Avoid civilian casualties Any military or political commentator who is referencing stories in the UK and US mainstream rags like "The Daily Mail" and "The Telegraph" has completely forgotten their trade-craft. Quoting propaganda outfits with no credibility shows that even normally skeptical professionals can become swept up the group-think hysteria of 'Putin-madness. Look at the map below. Is it not clear? We are only on Day Seven. The US and its allies took three weeks to advance from Basra to Baghdad after weeks of carpet bombing. Perspective?

Ignoring the MSM noise, Russia continues to make progress according to its plan. Here's a summary of developments:-

Mariupol is shaping up to be a critical battle. The city is now blockaded on all sides. There is fighting on the outskirts but no direct assault by Russian and DPR forces. The Russian side has opened a humanitarian corridor to allow the evacuation of civilians but the Azov Brigade is preventing their evacuation, arresting fleeing civilians and seizing hostages. There are reports of civilians being imprisoned in schools and hospitals which have been mined by the Azov Brigade in order to create a humanitarian catastrophe when the Russians advance into the city. More lessons learned from ISIS in Syria. The Russians are still trying to negotiate the with the city authorities.

Volnovakha, a Ukrainian occupied city in central Donestk has been surrounded but is not fully captured yet. Ukrainian forces there have suffered very heavy losses. Negotiations for surrender are underway.

Ukrainian forces trapped in the pocket (see map) have continued shelling cities and villages in the DPR. A Ukrainian force attempted an assault on Gorlovka. Losses were suffered on both sides without gain.

The liberation of LPR territory continues with the liberation of Svatovo and Novoaidar overnight. Ukrainian forces have retreated, abandoning their equipment. The UAF are now only holding on in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, but the process has already begun to drive them out.

Russian Forces have occupied Balakleya and are moving towards Izyum. From there Slavyansk is not far. It is likely that in the coming days the Ukrainian forces that are trapped in the the northern regions of the LPR will be surrounded and liquidated.

In Kharkov Russian forces continue to maintain a semi-blockade. There is fighting on the outskirts and within the city the methodical destruction of enemy manpower and its organizational and command structure and supply bases continues.

In the north east, Russian forces have approached Brovary, but there is no direct assault yet. There are battles near Chernigov and measures to establish full control over Konotop. Trostyanets is completely occupied. Sumy and Akhtyrka are still not completely pacified.
There are positional battles underway to the west of Kiev. There are losses of equipment and men on both sides and the Russian forces are bringing up additional forces. The ring around Kiev and Russian aerospace control will limit the ability of the Ukrainian forces to resist.

There are battles near Vasilievka in the direction of Zaporozhye. Ukrainian forces are pouring into the village. Energodar has not yet been pacified.

Overnight the city of Kherson was occupied by Russian troop with the agreement of the local authorities. Joint security patrols have been established with Russian troops and local police forces. The city is relatively calm.

In the area of Nikolaev, fighting continues to blockade the city, which has not yet been completed. The situation in the area of the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog highway is unclear. Helicopter borne forces have achieved a landing in the area of Nikolaev. The Ukrainians have blown up the bridge near Voznesensk in an attempt to slow the Russian advance.

Despite another proclaimed Russian landing in Odessa, nothing has happened. In the morning Ukrainian media claimed that Russian ships had appeared on the horizon but then withdrew. There was claims of a naval battle, but smoke that was observed on the horizon turned out to be from a freighter that was on fire. So far the Russians have not arrived, nevertheless, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine asked Zelensky to negotiate a pause in hostilities, since Odessa has no defenses or forces on its landward side. There is a growing threat to the city as Russian columns bypass Nikolaev in the north.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has officially announced the losses in Ukraine since the beginning of the operation - 498 members of the Russia Armed Forces killed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine - 2870 killed and 3700 wounded.

Negotiations
Following the fruitless negotiations on 28th February 2022, a second session has been scheduled for 4th March 2022 in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, a Belorussian nature reserve near the Ukrainian-Russian border. Ukrainian sources claim that as of 2nd March Zelensky was ready to recognize Crimea and the LDNR independence within existing Ukrainian borders. However, the time when this would be acceptable has long past. Russian has incurred significant costs for the operation and sanctions and, given Ukraine's long history of negotiating in bad faith and reneging on agreements (Minsk I and II), what would Zelensky's signature on a treaty actually be? Ukraine in its current form does not have national sovereignty, being basically run from the US Embassy in Kiev. This foreign occupation needs to be terminated.

For the avoidance of doubt, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, restated Russia's position, again (my paraphrase):

The purpose of the ongoing operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is to protect people, primarily in the Donbass from ongoing aggression. During the special operation, we do everything to prevent any serious civilian casualties. Russia is 100% successful in achieving its specific goals.

A key task of this operation is to identify specific strike weapons that have been deployed on Ukrainian soil by the western powers. We will never allow these weapons to be deployed there. Additionally, Ukraine has the technical potential to create a nuclear weapon, the Russian Federation will never allow this.

Russia's position in negotiations with Ukraine is the Crimea is part of the Russian Federation. This topic is closed. There must be recognition of the DPR and LPR within their administrative boundaries. There will be demilitarization within certain parameters. These demands on Ukraine cannot be qualified as its 'surrender.' After the end of the conflict, Ukrainians themselves must decide how they want to live and govern themselves. Russia offers Ukraine an agreement that will ensure the legal rights of all the peoples of this country. The parameters of security guarantees that Russia will offer Ukraine will be the subject of the second round of negotiations. At the present time, Kiev has not yet confirmed that it will participate in the second round of consultations.

The current situation has developed due to the fact that the West refused to recognize equal rights for the Russian Federation in organizing the European security architecture. Russia cannot watch participants in torchlight processions march under fascist, neo-Nazi banners in modern Europe. Ukraine must go through the denazification procedure, like Germany did in the past.

I don’t rule out that someone wants Russia to get bogged down in a Western-created conflict in Ukraine. NATO has been trying to involve neutral countries, members of the European Union in escalating the conflict. Moscow is amazed by Berlin's comments on Ukraine and supplying it with arms supplies. Russia is now observing "information terrorism" with the stuffing of millions of fakes, which Moscow exposes.

The West through its sanctions against Russia, including the seizure of assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, shows that it does not give a damn about all its stated principles. If the West has decided to lower a new “iron curtain” in front of Russia, we won’t we will worry and find an opportunity to develop.

Wednesday, 2 March 2022

A Novorussian Future


Vladimir Putin has said many times that Russia does not need any more land. So what does Russia want with Ukraine? Again, the answer has been given a hundred times - peace and safety on Russia's south-western border. Those two objectives can only be good for the people on both sides of the border.

So what then for Ukraine? When the Novorussian project kicked off in 2014 in response to the Maidan coup in Kiev, a fervent of ideas were set in motion. One of the instigators of the Novorussia movement was Paul Gubarev, who was briefly declared 'People's Governor' in Donestk. Gubarev was not a major political figure however and was quickly sidelined and then removed from power. He was arrested and tortured by Ukrainina authorities in Kiev in the early days - before the instigation of the fully-fledged terror regime - and survived an assassination attempt. He and his wife eventually left the republics and settled in Rostok on Don.

The motivations of the Novorussians are never discussed in the mainstream media and rarely if all in any depth in the English independent media. The dispute has been dumbed down to pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian ethnic and linguistic differences and misses a significant amount of context. Nostalgia for the golden years of the Soviet Union remains strong in Novorussia. This was the Soviet industrial heartland, a land of coal mines and steel mills. It was on the backs of the workers of Novorussia that the Soviets built their industrial revolution in a record time of only ten years. It was a hard and brutal undertaking that cost the lives of tens of thousands of workers and farmers, but thanks to all of that blood, sweat and copious tears, the Soviet Union was in a position to take on the might of the Wermacht and eventually prevail. The Novorussians have never forgotten this.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Novorussians attempted to cesede from the Ukraine. They had a very different history to the rest of the country, but Novorussia was too rich a prize to be let slip from Ukraine's grasp. For the next 30 years Ukrainian oligarchs and their various political regimes have picked over the bones of Ukraine's Soviet wealth. "There is a lot of ruin in a country" was never truer than in Ukraine. The slow collapse of Ukraine's industries due to looting and mismanagement did not however endear the Novorussians to rose-tinted visions of life across the border in Russia. Russian progress after the break up of the Soviet Union was little better. The one saving grace for Russia was that nationalists under Putin managed to bring order to the chaos, stop the worst excesses of the oligarchs, restore social services and begin the revivial of traditional Russian values. Russia however is - despite what is said in the west - a market capitalist society.

The Novorussians rejected both the Russian and the Ukrainian models and sought to pursue a truly socialist revival, that harkened back to the positive aspects of the Stalinist Five Year Plan era. That's hard for a western audience to get their head around, but it was not an unusual sentiment in Novorussia. So, among their plans was to put an end to the oligarchic system, nationalization of critical industries (steel, refineries, mining, etc), revitalize and modernize Novorussia's industrial base, revitalize farming, and restore critical infrastructure (roads, rail). In the social sphere a restoration of communal values, localised political councils (soviets), reintroducing workers councils, restore public schools, hospitals, care homes, pension reform, etc. There would be a focus on Novorussian culture as something independent from both Russia and Ukraine, although both those nations would remain 'brother nations' with a shared cultural heritage. This may have all been a fantastical pipe-dream, but it was clear at the outset that Novorussia wanted to follow a third path.

The war with Ukraine prevented this. As strange as it may sound, both Ukraine and Russia helped smother these early ideas, but for different reasons. The Ukrainian nationalists needed to exterminate Novorussia as a concept in order to establish a mono-cultural Ukraine. Russia for its part did not want to see the revival of a New Socialism movement that would inspire some of their neglected regions to revanchist dreams. In exile in Russia, Paul Gubarev wrote a book outlining the vision for a new Novorussia. Unfortunately it was never translated into English (I will have to find a Russian copy).

Gubarev's ideas were picked up by his successor Alexander Zakharchenko and were presented in a declaration of a new state, Malorossiya on 18 July 2015. Zakharchenko declared that “Ukraine cannot be rebuilt in its previous form....We, representatives of former Ukrainian regions, with the exception of Crimea, declare the establishment of a new state, which will be the successor to Ukraine. We agree that the new state will be called Malorossiya, because even the name ‘Ukraine’ has discredited itself.” Malorossiya (or Little Russia) would be a federal state, comprising those states (regions) who wished to join. Within the federal state there would be broad regional autonomy, allowing the regions to develop according to their own specific needs. It was hoped that Malorossiya as a model would inevitably draw the regions away from the Ukrainian failed state, but the concept was never able to develop while under constant Ukrainian shelling.

Gubarev and Zakharchenko's vision has been revived in the Declaration of the State of the Federal Republic of Ukraine on 1st March 2022 - 5:30pm (local time)

Declaration of State of the Federal Republic of Ukraine announced

In the regional and city councils of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and other regions of Ukraine, a discussion of the Manifesto on the creation of a new state has begun.

Manifesto on the Formation of the State of the Federal Republic of Ukraine

We, the free people of Kharkov, Nikolaev, Sumy, Chernigov and other regions of Ukraine, declare and proclaim the formation of a new democratic state, the Federal Republic of Ukraine.

When the course of events leads to the fact that people of different nations and peoples are forced to terminate the political ties that bind them to the state association by dictatorial repressive methods that impose the ideology of Nazism on society, they have an inalienable right to take an independent and equal place among the powers of the world, respectful attitude towards the opinion of mankind requires them to explain the reasons that prompted him to such a separation.

When a long series of egregious and inhumane abuses and violence, invariably subordinated to the same goal, testifies to the insidious design to force our peoples to accept unlimited despotism, dictatorship and the complete rehabilitation of Nazism, the overthrow of such a government and the creation of new security guarantees for the future becomes a right and a duty. peoples of Ukraine.

The peoples of Ukraine have shown patience for a long time, and only necessity compels them to change the previous system of their government.

The history of the existence of the state of Ukraine is a set of countless injustices and violence, the purpose of which is to establish unlimited despotism and neo-fascist dictatorship.

To confirm the above, we present the following facts to the impartial judgment of all mankind.
  • The glorification of Nazi criminals guilty of genocide and the destruction of hundreds of thousands of people - Ukrainians, Russians, Jews, Poles and people of other nationalities.
  • Eliminated freedom of speech and press, freedom of assembly.
  • Political opposition is prohibited.
  • A system of total surveillance, reprisals against unwanted and massacres has been organized.
  • Destroyed the justice system.
  • A corrupt model of state administration has been created, which led to the exodus from the country of 7 to 12 million people deprived of their livelihoods.
  • The healthcare system was destroyed, which led to a catastrophic extinction of the population.
  • An education reform has been carried out, teaching in Russian, Hungarian and other languages is prohibited.
  • Finally, a civil war is unleashed in the Donbass.
The ruling regime in Kyiv united with others to subject us to a jurisdiction alien to our constitution and not recognized by our laws, approved acts that claimed to become legislation and served to:
  • conducting exercises and quartering the armed forces of foreign states with us;
  • release, through trials, which are only in appearance, from the punishment of military and police officers who have committed murders of residents;
  • termination of our trade with other states;
  • elimination of jobs;
  • forcing citizens to leave the country in search of work;
  • taxing us without our consent;
  • depriving us in many court cases of the opportunity to enjoy the benefits of trial by jury;
  • the abolition of some and the adoption of other laws that are contrary to the wishes of the majority of the population of Ukraine;
  • revoking the rights and freedoms granted to us, repealing our most useful laws, and fundamentally changing the forms of our government;
  • Suspension of the activities of local and regional authorities and appropriation of the authority to legislate instead of us in a variety of cases.
Therefore, we, representatives of the regions of Ukraine, having in our hearts the honesty of our intentions, on behalf of and under the authorization of the peoples of these regions, solemnly record and declare that these regions are and by right should be free and independent, that they are freed from any dependence on to the Kiev authorities and that all political ties between them and the state of Ukraine must be completely severed, that, as free and independent states, they are authorized to declare war, conclude peace treaties, enter into alliances, conduct trade, perform any other actions and everything that what is the right of an independent state.

Our goal is to unite all the peoples of Ukraine who do not want to put up with the domination of neo-Nazism and bloody crimes on our land.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state and carry out complete denazification and debanderization, the introduction of criminal liability for the rehabilitation of Nazism.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state where every nation can speak its own language. The number of state languages is not limited.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state, where the main goals will be to ensure human rights and freedoms.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state where freedom of religion will be ensured and the independence of the Church from the state will be guaranteed.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state and punish war criminals who are guilty of unleashing a civil war and mass bloodshed.

Our goal is to create a democratic federal state with a free market economy.

Our goal is neutrality and friendly relations with all states of the world.

We ask all countries of the world to recognize the state of the Federal Republic of Ukraine.

And may the Lord help us in this.

The manifesto is open for signing by representatives of regional and city councils of all regions of Ukraine.

Igor Nemodruk, for Russian Spring



Tuesday, 1 March 2022

The Ukrainian De-Nazification Operation - Day Six


European Unity 1943. European Unity 2022. Some of the flags have changed.

I was invited into a pro-Ukrainian Facebook page last night by someone who obviously does not know my position. That's not really a surprise. To be even slightly pro-Russian in any respect in public will result in an avalanche of opprobrium. Best to remain quiet, neutral in public. It was an interesting experience to scroll through the posts, news and commentary. It was a complete world of fantasy and a lack of even rudimentary self-awareness. Some of the highlights -

1. The anonymous "Ghost of Kiev" continues to fly sorties over the capital, shooting Russian jets and helicopters at will. He is now the world's most successful fighter ace, having achieved 15 'confirmed' kills inside a week.

2. Europe will supply Ukraine 70 fighter jets to take on the Russian aggressor.

3. Entire Russian tank columns have been destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank missile battalions.

4. The Russian army has suffered over 5,600 casualties and is on the verge of collapse.

5. Russian units are defecting to Ukraine and bringing with them tanks and artillery to help the defense.

6. A foreign legion of anti-Russian crusaders is being formed to take the battle to the aggressor (this is actually true).

7. Russia is indiscriminately bombing civilians and residential areas with cluster munitions (maybe they learned this from the Americans?).

8. Domestically, the Russian population is turning against Putin and will be overthrown.
9. Western sanctions have broken the Russian economy, which now on the verge of collapse.
10. The Russian Central Bank has lifted spot interest rates to 20% (this is true).

11. Fierce resistance from the Ukrainian army and civilians has stopped the Russian advance.

Virtually all of this is presented in BOLD text only posts without any photographic or supporting evidence. Woe to anyone who asks "is there evidence?" They are instantly set upon and accused of being a Kremlin stooge or Putin-lover and banned. Now, I have no doubt that there are pro-Russian pages equally bereft of facts, evidence and reasoned discourse - this is after all a propaganda war for the economic future of the world, albeit with some kinetic activity. As Clausewitz says, "War is politics by other means." Pages such as this do no one any favors. These posts (and similar on the other side) are so disconnected from the harsh reality, that when the facts come crashing to the ground - as facts always do - the fanboys can only be disappointed, feel cheated. But that's social media isn't it? It's a corrosive poison that feeds on negative emotions.

The west dominates the propaganda space. Facebook, Twitter, the entire western mass media, even the smaller platforms are able to trumpet the "narrative" into every corner of the public space. Russia's official government websites are blocked by western cyber forces (this is very dangerous as it will play into the hands of those pushing for internet regulation and centralized digital currencies) and Russian public media does not have deep penetration among western audiences. Even here, very conventional Russian media channels like RT Russia Today is subject to bans in many western countries. Consequently it is easy for triumphant but false Ukrainian victory narratives to prevail. In a world of deep-fakes, CGI and digital editing, photographic evidence is not as reliable as it once was. Seeing is no longer believing. To add to the confusion, both Russia and Ukraine share a long military heritage. They use the same tanks, jets, helicopters, APCs, trucks and missile systems. Unit markings can be altered to transform burnt out Ukrainian tanks from 2014 into burnt out Russian tanks in 2022.

All of this make-believe generates real world dangers. One may question their sincerity, but the Ukrainian delegation that finally attended the ceasefire negotiations yesterday (the meeting was moved to a new location) appear to be operating entirely within the western / Ukrainian propaganda bubble. The Ukrainian delegation's opening position was for a ceasefire to allow the withdrawal of Russian military forces and the surrender of the Crimea, Donestk and Lugansk. This reveals the utterly delusional mindset of the Ukrainian regime and its western backers. You should never believe your own propaganda.

The Russian side noted that the Ukrainian delegation were armed with iPhones, which they placed on the table so that their US paymasters could listen into the negotiations (assume the Russians were monitoring and geo-locating the recipients too).

Ukraine's American and European sponsors are actively pushing for both a long insurgency war in Ukraine and a civilizational war against Russia. Britain came out and indicated that it is aiming to financially destroy Russia. Russia will be cut off from SWIFT. While restrictions are currently imposed on a number of small Russian banks, it is inevitable that this will be extended. Again, this 'nuclear' option is another own goal for the west. Russia and China already have a financial interchange to perform international trade in domestic currencies. Locking Russia out of SWIFT will only destabilize the western financial system further, leading other countries to move to the alternative mechanism in order to avoid arbitrary western sanctions, because if we can be sure of one thing, restrictions will only increase.

Western trade with Russia will not be able to stop on a dime. Long-term contracts exist for the supply of oil, gas, wheat, foodstuff, minerals, metals and much else besides and, with Russia shut out of the financial system, customers are going to have to find another way to pay or else.... no supply. How will Russia seek payment - I won't say, but I think it's safe to say that this scenario has occurred before in Russia's past. I foresee a huge investment opportunity. The US dreams of filling the export gap, but will it honestly be able to meet the demand in the short-term. Will there be any customers available in a bankrupted Europe in three months?

Germany and the EU have announced massive increases in military spending budgets - another key goal of the United States achieved! Germany alone is intending to spend more than 450 billion euro. Having lost its supply of cheap Russian gas and oil, how will Germany pay this useless expense?

The war has inevitably resulted in a drop in the value of the Ruble. Russia however has massive foreign reserves in safe foreign markets. Reserves in western banks will be seized, but Russia will respond in kind. Russia also has huge stockpiles of gold and precious metals. To counter the immediate threat of inflation, the Russian Central Bank has increased the lending rate to 20%. Western commentators have leapt on this step to predict the complete collapse of the Russian economy. They have completely missed the point. Russia can increase its internal lending and deposit rates because it has a substantial real economy, an economy of things. High deposit rates will attract depositors driven out of western markets, boosting Russian capital further. Some highly geared businesses will suffer, but undoubtedly the Russian government has considered this scenario and will take appropriate steps for appropriate industries.

That western commentators misunderstand the impact of this decision is very telling. The US and Europe have been running on credit and record low interest rates for a decade now. The US especially has been pumping fiat currency into its economy at an unsustainable rate. The National Debt is following an uncontrollable logarithmic curve https://usdebtclock.org/. The result of this process can only be hyper-inflation Consequently, the US and Europe (and many other economies around the world) are stuck in a debt spiral. They need to pull their economies back and cut debt. If official interest rates in the west were to increase only a percentage or two, both public and private debt would implode in a wave of bankruptcies. For this reason, the worthless western economists look at the Russian interest rate rises and see only instant collapse, because a rise of 2 or 3% in the west would have that effect. What do you think Russia's response to this weakness would be? https://stolzuntermenschen.blogspot.com/2022/02/writing-cheques-your-government-and.html

And in case anyone was in doubt about what the western goal is - the Russian's can read too.